I’m sure I’m not the only snooker player to wonder why my best game deserts me just when I need it most – particularly when I know that my opponent is dangerous.  However, I might be one of the first players to prove that this effect is real, by reference to my detailed statistics. My mate Steve is a level above me, but his stats so far on this website match up pretty well with my best games.  Problem is, my performances against him really are amongst the worst matches I’ve recorded – sometimes even being the worst performances since [MySnookerStats] records began! Studying the stats tells me some things which I hadn’t been able to quantify till now – I can see just how much I allow my style of play to change when I’m up against a better player, and so often in exactly the wrong way.  For example, I’m way more aggressive against him.  Steve’s potting is so strong that he can afford to go for far more long shots than I can – and I find myself trying to match him.  It doesn’t work, and the numbers are there as a permanent reminder of that.  Also, Steve flies round the table; he’s so much more natural as a player, he doesn’t need to settle himself on each shot the way I do.  So what happens?  My shot time drops too – after all, I don’t want to be seen to be slow.  Madness! So will I learn?  About three years ago, I used to play Steve a lot more often, and it’s no coincidence that that was when I played my best snooker.  I still know now what I knew then, and I’ve probably learnt a lot more technical stuff besides.  But now that I play such strong opponents so rarely, I’ve lost that confidence that used to allow me to try to compete with him on my own terms. Obviously, every time I play him I get more used to the challenge and the pressure – but it hurts to get beaten so comprehensively, and I have to be brave to keep coming back for more.  Still, now that I’ve seen my stats and determined this flaw in my approach, you can bet I’ll be working on that the next time we play. The bottom line in this game seems to be that you need to lose a lot of games in order to get better.  But if you can handle the knocks, the improvements are there to be reaped. Good luck!

The positional success statistic reported by the MySnookerStats application is enormously useful in providing a calculation of your overall snooker ability.

MySnookerStats simply calculates the proportion of times you successfully pot another ball once you have potted a first, taking no account of whether you played your shots with a genuine possibility or intention of getting into position for the next. As a result, your positional success as quoted by MySnookerStats will be lower than would be the case if a BBC statistician was ‘marking’ your game for you. However, the MySnookerStats value does give you a solid approximation of your probability of making a subsequent pot at any time, and this figure can be used to estimate your chance of making breaks of a certain size.

For example, if your positional play is so good that 90% of the time you will pot the next ball, then you have roughly a 1 in 15 chance of making a century when you come to the table early in a frame. On the other hand, if you succeed with the next ball only 50% of the time, you are looking at roughly a 1 in 67 million chance – it might be tough to swallow but you are 5 times more likely to win the National Lottery (1 in just under 14 million)!

The following table demonstrates the compounding effect and hopefully will serve to motivate you to work on improving your positional play – just look at the potential effect of a 5% improvement in your ability.

Positional Success Percentage	Chance of 30+	Chance of 50+	Chance of 70+	Chance of 100+
95%	1.5	2.1	2.5	3.8
90%	2.3	4.4	6.7	15
85%	3.7	9.7	19	68
80%	6	23	56	331
75%	10	56	177	1772
70%	17	147	614	10652
65%	31	416	2331	73156
60%	60	1276	9846	586229
55%	119	4314	47149	5630800
50%	256	16384	262144	67108864
45%	595	71618	1746525	1038662954
40%	1526	372529	14551915	22204460493
35%	4441	2415724	160981215	714876213704
30%	15242	20907516	2581174792	39341179571914
25%	65536	268435456	68719476736	4.50E+015
20%	390625	6103515625	3814697265625	1.49E+018
15%	3901844	342548739078	676639484598917	2.64E+021
10%	100000000	100000000000010	1.00E+018	1.00E+026
5%	25600000000	1.64E+018	2.62E+023	6.71E+033

For the mathematicians amongst you, a 100+ break requires a minimum of 26 consecutive pots, the probability of which is approximately your positional success raised to the power of 26 (this should be correct to an order of magnitude). A 30+ break takes a minimum of 8 balls, 50+ typically takes 14 (although, of course, you can do it in 12 if you clear up the last 3 reds with at least 2 blacks and a pink), and 70+ takes a minimum of 18.

For the non-mathematicians amongst you, wherever “E+” appears in the number in your cell, please just assume that such an event is considered “scientifically unlikely”. At this point you should either lower your sights or get practising…

Good luck, all!