OK, maybe I grabbed your attention under false pretences by making you think this was the start of some awful Bernard Manning joke. Let me correct that quickly.

Last night, BBC2 audiences across the UK were treated to a Best of Top Gear special, except for those unfortunate people in Wales who were forced to sit through the final session of the Welsh Open between John Higgins and Ali Carter. I guess somebody important at the Beeb must actually think along these lines…

Top Gear can wait! Given that the snooker calendar features fewer ranking events than ever and is blessed with a home nation tournament in Wales, a country with great snooker traditions, top top players and terrific passionate support, it upsets me that the majority of the UK doesn’t even get the chance to see the competition unless they pay for additional TV services or equipment or for access to the internet. The fact is that there was simply no promotion of the event here for the rest of the UK to latch on to.

It feels like a continuation of the recent trend for the BBC to push its highlights slots ever later into the evening and reduce its prime-time output. I’m lucky enough to be able to get both the BBC 2 Wales coverage on Sky and to get online to see the matches live but this just doesn’t seem right and can only contribute to the falling audience numbers. Barry Hearn has a real job on his hands to turn this around.

As for the tournament itself, it was another disappointing year for the Welsh boys who were without a semi-finalist from their number. Finally John Higgins took the crown with an imperious first five frames in the final catching Ali Carter cold. While Ali did his best to make a match of it from there, the writing was on the wall and Higgins cruised to a 9-4 triumph.

Mark Selby won yet another dramatic final frame decider to regain the Masters Crown 10-9 from reigning champion O’Sullivan. Clearly the venue and the atmosphere suits Selby well and helps him to produce his best when he is right up against it. This was his seventh final frame decider at Wembley and he’s won every single one of them. That’s a better record than Germany’s national football team in penalty shoot-outs. (Yes, they actually lost one once, in 1976. Really.)

The final session of this event was an absolute treat for its audience, even if it will have cost a few of us some valuable Zs before the working week ahead. Selby came out all guns blazing and went for everything that was available and even a few that didn’t seem to be. He seemed to get them all. But he couldn’t close the gap completely as his safety play appeared to suffer instead. Two very ordinary shots allowed O’Sullivan into what should have been an unassailable lead at 9-6.

There are very few players in the world who you would give much chance of coming back from that position against the best player in the world, but Selby has done it before – in the Welsh Open final 2008, winning the last four to claim a 9-8 victory. Now at Wembley he really is becoming the Master.

It slowly began to feel like Ronnie too believed that such a turnaround was on the cards again, as he failed to capitalize on the few scraps of chances he was given to claim his tenth frame. In fairness to Ronnie (more than he affords himself), he had chances to win it and missed both a yellow off the spot and a tricky left-handed green with lots of check side before his defeat was confirmed, but it was noticeable in his post-match interviews that he just isn’t feeling on top of his game, and that he felt the inevitability of it. I wonder if snooker is unique amongst games for its ability to make the very best player the world has ever seen feel like that.

As for Selby, there’s a grit and determination behind the humour, and surely one day there’ll be a World Championship to add to his prize list, even if Ronnie’s not so sure…

A brilliant final for a brilliant tournament, and now a longish wait for the season’s show piece. Time to hit the baize…

These days it seems like the snooker world and his dog are pounding the pavements long distance running. A healthy mind in a healthy body and all that. It would appear the rigours of snooker are well-matched to the endurance and control required out on the roads.

Ronnie O’Sullivan and Peter Ebdon are easily the highest profile of snooker’s top stars to count running as a key lifestyle choice, but recently rising star Ricky Walden completed the New York marathon.

Well, I’ve joined the ranks and will be taking on the Edinburgh Marathon this coming May. The discipline of pacing yourself and staying composed also ought to be good practice for keeping yourself composed when you’re en route to a high break. Unfortunately the latter just doesn’t happen often enough for me to be able to stay relaxed…

I guess the worst case scenario is that I just end up being fit. Not disastrous.

Took a day out to visit Willie Thorne’s club in Leicester to show support for my new pal Joe Jogia, playing in his home club event in the Pro Tour. I arrived at lunch on day two, by which time Joe had already seen off Stephen Lee and Michael White, both by 4-2 margins. His next round match was against Rod Lawler who had just defeated Nigel Bond.

The game was an epic encounter, if not the most pleasing on the eye. Joe made the early running and enjoyed some favourable run to take the first and open a commanding lead in the second. Lawler’s patience was eventually rewarded with a 67 to steal level and signal his intent to take Joe and the partisan crowd on. The same cautious approach won him the next and Joe, who’d been away from the balls for the best part of an hour, started to look like he might be in trouble.

The pace of the game was extremely slow, which seemed to deny both players their usual fluency, but Joe continued to take on the big long pots and the crowd rallied behind him as he started to look the most likely. He took frames four and five, and with the game firmly swung in his favour, a loose positional shot on match ball seemed likely only to delay him by a few moments, as he played a fine safety to shore up the brown. Instead, Lawler produced a brilliant fightback with a series of extremely tough pots, cueing over balls and from tight on cushions and suddenly they were level at three apiece.

In the decider, Lawler finally came out on the offensive, pushing for the long reds that he had been refusing all game, but leaving Joe the chances he’d been denied for such long periods. Both players were looking pretty tired now and the home support were crucial in keeping Joe focussed as he dug in and found the points he needed.

At this point, I needed a rest, even if Joe wasn’t going to get one. Sometimes it’s harder work watching than playing! They were ready to start the next round as all the other matches were long since finished. In particular, Ricky Walden and Jamie Cope had wrapped their match up in little over an hour and a quarter with Walden making four centuries in his 4-1 win. Poor Jamie Cope had only managed one century of his own – what a game!

The quarter final pitched Joe against Peter Lines and Joe flew out of the blocks with a 90 to claim the first before I’d even made my way back into the arena. It looked like it might be a cruise when he added the next, but Lines is also built of strong stuff and produced some fine shots to pinch the third at the death, including a half ball pink virtually tethered to the cushion, dispatched along the length of the table to the baulk corner. He levelled the match with a sixty in the next and the momentum appeared to be with him, when a simple lapse early in the fifth left Joe in amongst the balls and he wasn’t about to turn that kind of opportunity down. And now with the crowd sensing the semi-final beckoning Joe got himself 43 clear with one red left in the sixth. The following exchanges were nail-biting – Lines leaving Joe in a series of horrible snookers and, after one foul on the pink had increased the pressure, he pulled out a matching series of brilliant escapes to hold his lead and finally clinch the match 4-2. It was a reminder of how much you miss when the highlights programmes truncate the frames at the “snookers required” stage.

I wasn’t there for the final day’s play but Joe’s rich vein of form continued with an impressive 5-0 win over Ricky Walden. Sadly he didn’t quite last the distance as he was pipped 5-3 in the final by Robert Milkins. Nevertheless, this was a highly creditable effort and I wish him well for upcoming events. He’ll probably welcome me back as a supporter too, because I’ve still never seen him lose!

[You can read more about the Pro Challenge Snooker event series and results at www.global-snooker.com.]

Determined Aussie Neil Robertson eased past Ding Junhui to claim the fourth ranking tournament victory of his career and MySnookerStats watched the drama unfold…

Perhaps tonight’s Grand Prix final was always destined to be an anti-climax after the classic semi which saw Robertson triumph over Higgins by the slenderest of margins, thanks to a fortunate leave from an attempted double of the final frame’s final black. And yet this match started with some sparkling snooker, particularly from Robertson who took a 4-3 lead whilst also claiming his 99th and 100th tournament centuries.

Ding was first into stride in the evening and levelled the match at 4-4 with two decent contributions, but it was the next frame which was to prove pivotal. And epic!

Some scrappy exchanges saw Ding burying his head under his towel as Robertson pushed himself to the brink, but a bad kick on the yellow encouraged Ding from his seat needing just one snooker, and after a series of fine attempts he eventually trapped his man. Unfortunately he just as soon let him squirm away by missing a number of gettable chances on the brown leaving Robertson to pinch it.

It was a body-blow to Ding who from this point seemed to tire very quickly. Robertson kept it tight to offer him no encouragement and it was always just a matter of time before the Aussie could claim the prize which his performances throughout had merited.

Continuing my recent flirtation with entering competitions which I really don’t belong in, I turned up at the Grove Snooker club in Harold Hill, Essex, for an Open event, which I’d been promised a number of top players would be entering. I had fully intended to simply be an interested spectator, and maybe show a few people the app and tell them about my site, but a mate suggested I might as well have a game just for the experience. And I’m glad that I did, although that’s not because I played well.

The comp was organised by Bill King, father of Mark who is currently ranked #16 in the world, so at least I felt that my entrance money would find its way into a safe pair of hands…

My opponent in the first round was Joe Jogia. Not yet a household name, I asked him if he played much. “A bit,” he nodded. He rattled in a 50 with his first chance to cruise the first frame, and added a 137 total clearance to seal the second. At this point I asked him if he was, in fact, on the Main Tour. It turns out that he has just qualified to be in that very special Top 96 bracket by virtue of winning the PIOS (the Pontin’s International Open Series – the only way to reach the professional ranks) – and he’s provisionally ranked number 69 in the world. At this point, I relaxed, knowing that in about twenty minutes I would be ordering a burger and chips in the bar and then be on my way home.

As the scrappy third frame drifted out of my reach, Gary Filtness (co-organiser) wandered past and reminded us that I should actually have an 18 start since Joe is on the Main Tour. I pointed out that had I known about this, I would have only lost the previous frame by 119 points. It was far too late for the extra points to rescue me in this one either, so I conceded and we started the last, I mean the fourth. In fact, I’m sure Joe was starting to feel sorry for me and did his best to ease off and give me a few chances to pinch it. I resolutely refused to take advantage, even when just an easy red and the six colours on their spots remained. As the green rebounded from the jaws of the pocket, my fate was sealed.

The burger and chips were excellent, by the way, and it was a good chance to sit down and hear a few stories from Bill and Gary. I can’t repeat any of them here, unfortunately…

Later on, I watched as Joe compiled a 147 against Stuart Bingham. This was the first time I’d ever witnessed one live and it was a treat. The applause from the eight-strong crowd had barely settled down by the time we realised that Mark King on the other table was embarking on a maximum of his own. I watched in disbelief as he strolled round and dispatched the final colours. Two in ten minutes. Surely this kind of thing doesn’t happen often?

If you want to see some top quality snooker, you should check out the next Open event (once the date is confirmed). Meanwhile, I’ll focus on the bread and butter of the local league instead!

Andy

Back from the Pontin’s Autumn Festival 2009, having notched up another couple of convincing first round exits. The Festival provides all entrants with two separate competitions – first, the main Open tournament and then one of the age-specific competitions (pick from the under 20s, the Twenty40s, the Masters, and the Super Sixties as appropriate). I’ve got a few years of Twenty40s left in me yet, despite definitely looking like an old Master! It’s a great tournament to be involved in, organized and officiated by some familiar faces, including the great John Williams, and it’s an absolute privilege to play on some of the best snooker tables in the world. The facilities are excellent in the Pontin’s World Snooker centre and it’s a great chance to catch an early glimpse of some of the sure-to-be stars of the future. On previous occasions I have won the odd match in this festival, but, this time round in the main event, I was drawn against a highly talented young Welshman, David Donovan, who, having dispatched me 4-0 with the absolute minimum of fuss, went on to narrowly miss out on the top prize, eventually losing the Final against another pro player Michael Georgiou. So I’m not too upset on that score! Prior to the Twenty40s, I ran into my first round opponent, Chris Hart, in the practice room, and carelessly corrected him when he said that he’d see me for battle at 5:30pm – we were scheduled to play at 5:15pm. Under the strict time-keeping rules of the competitions, I would probably have been given a two-frame start for his lateness, had I just mumbled a ‘yes’! In the event, our scrappy tussle ended 3-2 in his favour, but we both know that he would probably have won the game more convincingly if he’d managed to find his way back to his chalet from the bar any earlier than the 4am he actually achieved. :-) Anyway, hopefully I’ll be back there next year, to catch up with all the familiar faces and enjoy some more of that snooker community spirit…

Once upon a time I could emerge from a session of snooker and my view of my performance would be entirely based on my highest break on the day.  An old snooker buddy once asked me how I could consider a 49 break to be disappointing and yet a 50 to be a success – and while I’m the first to admit my “base ten fixation”, I think it was this question that got me started on the idea of MySnookerStats, and trying to really understand what a good performance was.

Nowadays, armed with the extra information, I can see that there are many times when I would kid myself that I’m playing well just because I’d made one decent contribution across two hours of snooker, and many other times where the high break might not have been there but my consistency of play was better.  Sometimes I guess it’s just pretty hard to get excited about a string of mediocre breaks.

Note: it’s all relative, of course – there’ll be many players out there who rattle in centuries like clockwork, and there’ll be many more who never quite reach the giddy heights of the half century, but everyone has their own understanding of what represents a good day or a bad day on the baize.

For a long time, I had focussed on the number of 30+ and 50+ breaks I made relative to the number of frames I played.  This probably explains the yips I still get when I’m on 29 or 49…  Once I realised I could use my mobile phone to remember the outcome of every shot I played by simply adapting it as a mini electronic scoreboard, the idea was born.

So, what do I know now?  My long term positional success is 69.1% (my potting is 69.7%) based on the evidence of 646 recorded frames.  Compare this if you will against John Higgins’s 86.7% position (with 89.0% potting) recorded in his 9-7 defeat of Ryan Day in the 2008 Royal London Watches Grand Prix final.  So there’s the consistency benchmark I want to be aiming for!

If your long term positional record is 70%+, then you’re almost certainly a better player than me, and you should expect to beat me, unless you’re even more reckless than me when faced with that tricky long pot that you really really ought to refuse…

If your long term record is below 69%, then we’re in for a decent game, and hopefully I’ll just edge you out in the decider…

I’m sure I’m not the only snooker player to wonder why my best game deserts me just when I need it most – particularly when I know that my opponent is dangerous.  However, I might be one of the first players to prove that this effect is real, by reference to my detailed statistics. My mate Steve is a level above me, but his stats so far on this website match up pretty well with my best games.  Problem is, my performances against him really are amongst the worst matches I’ve recorded – sometimes even being the worst performances since [MySnookerStats] records began! Studying the stats tells me some things which I hadn’t been able to quantify till now – I can see just how much I allow my style of play to change when I’m up against a better player, and so often in exactly the wrong way.  For example, I’m way more aggressive against him.  Steve’s potting is so strong that he can afford to go for far more long shots than I can – and I find myself trying to match him.  It doesn’t work, and the numbers are there as a permanent reminder of that.  Also, Steve flies round the table; he’s so much more natural as a player, he doesn’t need to settle himself on each shot the way I do.  So what happens?  My shot time drops too – after all, I don’t want to be seen to be slow.  Madness! So will I learn?  About three years ago, I used to play Steve a lot more often, and it’s no coincidence that that was when I played my best snooker.  I still know now what I knew then, and I’ve probably learnt a lot more technical stuff besides.  But now that I play such strong opponents so rarely, I’ve lost that confidence that used to allow me to try to compete with him on my own terms. Obviously, every time I play him I get more used to the challenge and the pressure – but it hurts to get beaten so comprehensively, and I have to be brave to keep coming back for more.  Still, now that I’ve seen my stats and determined this flaw in my approach, you can bet I’ll be working on that the next time we play. The bottom line in this game seems to be that you need to lose a lot of games in order to get better.  But if you can handle the knocks, the improvements are there to be reaped. Good luck!

The positional success statistic reported by the MySnookerStats application is enormously useful in providing a calculation of your overall snooker ability.

MySnookerStats simply calculates the proportion of times you successfully pot another ball once you have potted a first, taking no account of whether you played your shots with a genuine possibility or intention of getting into position for the next. As a result, your positional success as quoted by MySnookerStats will be lower than would be the case if a BBC statistician was ‘marking’ your game for you. However, the MySnookerStats value does give you a solid approximation of your probability of making a subsequent pot at any time, and this figure can be used to estimate your chance of making breaks of a certain size.

For example, if your positional play is so good that 90% of the time you will pot the next ball, then you have roughly a 1 in 15 chance of making a century when you come to the table early in a frame. On the other hand, if you succeed with the next ball only 50% of the time, you are looking at roughly a 1 in 67 million chance – it might be tough to swallow but you are 5 times more likely to win the National Lottery (1 in just under 14 million)!

The following table demonstrates the compounding effect and hopefully will serve to motivate you to work on improving your positional play – just look at the potential effect of a 5% improvement in your ability.

Positional Success Percentage	Chance of 30+	Chance of 50+	Chance of 70+	Chance of 100+
95%	1.5	2.1	2.5	3.8
90%	2.3	4.4	6.7	15
85%	3.7	9.7	19	68
80%	6	23	56	331
75%	10	56	177	1772
70%	17	147	614	10652
65%	31	416	2331	73156
60%	60	1276	9846	586229
55%	119	4314	47149	5630800
50%	256	16384	262144	67108864
45%	595	71618	1746525	1038662954
40%	1526	372529	14551915	22204460493
35%	4441	2415724	160981215	714876213704
30%	15242	20907516	2581174792	39341179571914
25%	65536	268435456	68719476736	4.50E+015
20%	390625	6103515625	3814697265625	1.49E+018
15%	3901844	342548739078	676639484598917	2.64E+021
10%	100000000	100000000000010	1.00E+018	1.00E+026
5%	25600000000	1.64E+018	2.62E+023	6.71E+033

For the mathematicians amongst you, a 100+ break requires a minimum of 26 consecutive pots, the probability of which is approximately your positional success raised to the power of 26 (this should be correct to an order of magnitude). A 30+ break takes a minimum of 8 balls, 50+ typically takes 14 (although, of course, you can do it in 12 if you clear up the last 3 reds with at least 2 blacks and a pink), and 70+ takes a minimum of 18.

For the non-mathematicians amongst you, wherever “E+” appears in the number in your cell, please just assume that such an event is considered “scientifically unlikely”. At this point you should either lower your sights or get practising…

Good luck, all!